Jan 9, 2025 1:10pm PT

Final Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor — Is Yura Borisov the Dark Horse?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Best Supporting Actor Commentary (Updated Jan. 21, 2025): The supporting actor category at SAG largely followed expectations, with Golden Globe winner Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) securing a spot alongside Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) and Yura Borisov (“Anora”). However, Jonathan Bailey’s inclusion in “Wicked” turned heads and speaks to the film’s overall strength in the race. Jeremy Strong also made waves with his first film nomination for playing Donald Trump’s mentor, Roy Cohn, in Ali Abbasi’s “The Apprentice.” Strong’s nod pushed out heavyweight contenders like Denzel Washington, who delivered a villainous performance in “Gladiator II” (which only landed a stunt nomination), and Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”), who had been widely expected to join his co-star Adrien Brody.

Does that mean they’re out? Not by a long shot. In terms of a winner, despite Culkin dominating the precursors, this is prone to a tide shift.

Borisov has landed all the necessary nominations, and you have to wonder if the 32-year-old Russian breakout star could be this year’s Troy Kotsur and be the key to the film winning best picture.

Norton, who has three prior nominations for “Primal Fear,” “American History X,” and “Birdman,” is long overdue for a trip to the Oscar stage, and “A Complete Unknown” is surging in the awards race.

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Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

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Eligible Performers (Best Supporting Actor)

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More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actor)

2024 category winner: Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) Michael Buckner for Variety

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.