Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actress — Demi Moore Skyrockets in Race

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Actress Commentary (Updated Jan. 21, 2025): In a year where clear frontrunners have emerged slowly, the Golden Globes offered crucial hints about which films and performances might emerge to lead awards season. Demi Moore appears to be the new best actress frontrunner after her Golden Globe win for “The Substance” in the comedy/musical category. Moore’s victory on Sunday night over Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) and Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) is the type of moment that can shift the awards race just as Oscar ballots are set to go out later this week.

But Moore’s win wasn’t the only significant moment of the night.

In the lead actress in a drama category, where A-listers like Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) were widely predicted to win, Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres surprised the room by taking home the prize for her performance in the non-English language drama “I’m Still Here.” Coming 30 years after her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, was nominated for “Central Station,” the win gives Torres a vital boost in a category where it’s notoriously difficult for international actors to secure Oscar attention. Still, the overall Oscar best actress race remains crowded. Aggregator sites like Gold Derby show four Golden Globe comedy/musical nominees — Moore, Erivo, Madison and Gascón — currently hold top spots in many predictions.

And then came the SAG nominations.

The actress field was led by the comedy/musical performances, with Erivo, Moore, Madison and Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) earning nods. Gascón’s historic nomination makes her the first openly transgender actor nominated in the SAG film categories.

Surprisingly, only one drama actress from the Golden Globes crossed over to SAG’s list — and it wasn’t Oscar winners Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), Kate Winslet (“Lee”), or even the Globes’ winner Torres. Instead, Pamela Anderson’s performance in “The Last Showgirl” earned her a SAG nom, which significantly boosted her campaign as Oscar voting opened. That accompanying Jamie Lee Curtis nom in supporting can also be a vital clue.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.