Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actor — Is It Daniel Craig or Sebastian Stan for the Fifth Spot?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Actor Commentary (Updated Jan. 21, 2025): The SAG lineup delivered a roster that largely aligned with expectations. The nominees included Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist,” Timothée Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown,” Daniel Craig for “Queer,” Colman Domingo for “Sing Sing,” and Ralph Fiennes for “Conclave.” Notably missing from the list, however, was Golden Globe winner Sebastian Stan, who had been in contention for his performances in both “A Different Man” and “The Apprentice.” The double snub, likely caused by a vote-splitting scenario, could hinder Stan’s momentum as awards season progresses.

However, SAG’s decision to nominate Craig added some complexity to the race, mainly since BAFTA chose not to nominate him, opting instead for Hugh Grant in “Heretic” and Stan in “The Apprentice,” in a field of six nominees. There’s a lack of consensus for the final slot in the category. Meanwhile, a vocal group (admittedly small) of supporters is rallying behind Clint Eastwood’s “Juror No. 2,” adding another wildcard to the mix.

Interestingly, one voter revealed they are “definitely voting for Nicholas Hoult,” as well as many of their friends, they claimed. What could a surprising inclusion for Hoult look like? It would be on the level of Tommy Lee Jones, who was nominated for “In the Valley of Elah” in 2007. That year, Jones also had another prominent role in contention with “No Country for Old Men” (in supporting actor). Hoult also has Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu,” which is also being campaigned in the lead actor category, and Justin Kurzel’s “The Order,” which he submitted in supporting.

It’ll be a photo finish.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.