Final Oscar Predictions: Adapted Screenplay — Will ‘Nickel Boys’ and ‘Sing Sing’ Both Land Noms?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Best Adapted Screenplay Commentary (Updated Jan. 21, 2024): Jacques Audiard’s genre-defying crime musical, “Emilia Pérez,” has stormed into the season with a commanding 10 Golden Globe noms, setting a new record for the most nods ever received by a comedy or musical film. Among its noms is one for best screenplay, a distinction that has historically eluded musicals in major awards races. It’s only the third musical to receive a Golden Globe nomination for screenplay; “

The two musicals to precede it — Rob Marshall’s “Chicago” (2002) and Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” (2016) — paved the way for films that blend music and narrative to be recognized for their scripts. Both saw significant success at the Golden Globes. “Chicago” won the Oscar for best picture and secured an adapted screenplay nod, though it lost the category to “The Pianist.” Meanwhile, “La La Land” triumphed at the Globes with a seven-win sweep but ultimately fell short at the Oscars, losing in both original screenplay and best picture.

For “Emilia Pérez,” the Golden Globe recognition could begin a more extensive campaign for the screenplay category at the Oscars. In this space, musicals have historically struggled to find traction. Only one musical, Vincente Minnelli’s lavish “Gigi” (1958), has ever won the Oscar for adapted screenplay. Since the Academy Awards began in 1929, a mere 12 musicals have been nominated in the category, the most recent being “Chicago.”

Perhaps “Wicked” can join the musical love? It will need to to win best picture (if you believe it can).

This year, the divide between critics, audiences, and Academy members feels particularly pronounced. For instance, critical darlings like RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys” and Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” have struggled to translate their momentum into voter enthusiasm. Conversely, “Emilia Pérez” — which sports lukewarm Rotten Tomatoes scores (76% critics, 40% audience) — is widely expected to dominate noms, potentially becoming the most-nominated non-English-language film in Oscar history.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.